Today is the last note of the year.We’ll return to publishing our daily content on 1 February 2021. First and foremost, thank you for your support this year – reading our publications, utilising our platform and investment service, participating in...
“Be a symbol of perfection,Be an object, be a cultTake their praise, take the collectionAs the multitudes exalt"Elton John, “It’s Tough To Be A God” Despite what we may read in the news of late, the world has become a...
The imposition of COVID-19 on societies across the globe may have lead investors to doubt the future prospects of commercial property, while the opposite has occurred in many nation’s residential property markets, as the rise of working-from-home arrangements has re-emphasised...
The American pharmaceutical firm Pfizer, in collaboration with German firm BioNTech, surprised the world when it announced their coronavirus vaccine showed 90% efficacy in preventing COVID-19. Days later, another American firm, Moderna, announced their vaccine has nearly 95% efficacy. Shortly...
Economic Outlook for 2021 and US/China relations under President Elect Biden. With 2020 almost over, I have been researching what 2021 could hold, especially for Australia’s largest trading partner, China. Given that the global pandemic may have started in the...
The largest Free Trade Agreement in the world On 15th November, Australia signed its commitment to a free trade deal almost a decade in the making: The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). 15 nations in total signed the RCEP, which...
After falling victim to COVID-19 in Q2, spending on online advertising has posted a strong recovery moving towards 2021. Today we follow this recovery and consider if we can use where this advertising spending is going, between regions and sectors,...
Delving into the world of ESG is an eye-opening investigation, as the wealth of data and content that is now being assessed and incorporated into modern portfolio investment practises is enormous.
RBA Governor Philip Lowe attended the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA)’s annual dinner on Tuesday evening. The topics he spoke about are not only important to us for their investment implications, but also to understand what policies one...
“Oh Superman where are you now? When everything's gone wrong somehow, The men of steel, the men of power Are losing control by the hour.” Genesis, “Land of Confusion” “So, what happens to Company X if China and the U.S....
“And as he hung up the phone it occurred to me He’d grown up just like me, My boy was just like me” Harry Chapin, “Cat’s in the Cradle” One of the largest transferrals of wealth in history will occur...
The Reserve Bank (RBA) met yesterday and while the market predicted most of the resulting change in monetary policy setting, the Bank did provide some unexpected surprises. The point of policy In our missive on 26 October, we sought to...
In advance, thank you to Brent Donnelly at HSBC for the two charts and providing the link to the BBC news article. "Past performance does not indicate future performance." You may have seen this statement or a similar one on...
“Don’t care if my liver is hanging by a thread, Don’t care if my doctor says I ought to be dead, When my ugly big car won’t climb this hill I’ll write a suicide note on a hundred-dollar bill.” Dire...
Monetary policy has become less clear, despite central banks stated desire to promote stability and transparency. It used to be that looking at the RBA’s cash rate target and charting the yields of ASX-listed bank bill futures would provide a...
“I’m on my way, I’m making it I’ve got to make it show, So much larger than life, I’m going to watch it growing” - Peter Gabriel, ‘Big Time’ To quote All the President’s Men (1976), “follow the money." Investors,...
“Well he cast his eyes upon her And the trouble soon began And Leroy Brown learned a lesson 'Bout messin' with the wife of a jealous man.” - Jim Croce, “Bad, Bad, Leroy Brown” We live in the age of...
I’ve used a provocative title today, but the question has been asked of me more and more in recent weeks - where government expenditure as a ratio of our overall national output (spending/GDP) is growing to higher and higher levels....
“Money, so they say, Is the root of all evil today But if you ask for a raise it’s no surprise that they’re Giving none away.” Pink Floyd, “Money” The world is steadily gaining more wealth - with more money...
The price of goods, services and financial assets determine our ability to consume or invest in them. If prices increase and our income does not, then we need to reduce our ability to consume or invest. In terms of goods...
“Get on a TWA to the promised land. Every woman, child and man Gets a Cadillac and a great big diamond ring. Don't you know you're riding with the king?” Eric Clapton, B.B. King (2000) The adage that ‘cash is...
On Tuesday evening, Commonwealth government Treasurer Josh Frydenberg delivered the 2020-2021 budget (delayed since May) which was brimming with a mix of measures designed to boost near-term demand as well as lift longer-term growth and economic output. The latter, the...
Considering the huge variance in weather over the past 12 months in Australia, where extreme drought, horrendous bushfires and now flooding rains have all impacted not only rural communities but also those in the “big smoke”, the above words of...
“But I'm all right Standing out here In the hot sun When I see the light I feel like More than just a number” Neil Young, Computer Age (1982) Apple can see your search history, Europe is protecting you, and...
The market is now pricing in a cut to the Overnight Cash Rate (OCR) from 0.25% for the RBA’s October 6th meeting, with potential to change other policy measures as well. Let’s take a look why. The Australian Economy and...
“A noble craft, but somehow a most melancholy! All noble things are touched with that.” ― Herman Melville, Moby-Dick Hunting for whales I’ve been asked before to keep an eye on video game companies, often an overlooked part of the market,...
Ngilondoloze (Guard me) Uhambe nami (walk with me) Jersulame ikhaya lami (Jerusalem is my home) Master KG [2020] Today marks the vernal equinox so a happy first day of spring for all of us reading in the southern hemisphere....
Cause the players tried to take the field The marching band refused to yield Do you recall what was revealed The day the music died? Don McLean (1989) November 3rd will be an important date for most Australians. First and...
There’s a lady who’s sure, All that glitters is gold And she’s buying a stairway to Heaven Led Zepplin (1971) Last Wednesday, I wrote this note about how central banks are providing so much liquidity in an attempt to...
HYBRIT: Hydrogen Breakthrough Ironmaking Technology In this new world of COVID-induced change, the rapid change in focus by society and mainstream media away from environmental reform and greenhouse gas emissions to health care and job security has been remarkable. It...
“People say I got a drinkin’ problem But I got no problem drinkin’ at all They keep on talkin’ Drawing conclusions They call it a problem, I call it a solution” Midland (2017) My song and band reference...
Today, I want to talk about the Autumn of ’68 in the USA. While not as catchy as Bryan Adam’s “Summer of '69”, the US Autumn of 1968 was quite a notable period, but for all the wrong reasons. Calendar...
You changed it all And stopped all my pain I guess what I'm saying You're a game changer Johnny Grill (2014) The emergency authorisation granted to Abbott Labs' 15-minute coronavirus test may be the game changer we've been waiting for....
Each year there is a large gathering of economists, financial market participants, academics, US government officials in Jackson Hole, Wyoming (USA), to discuss long-term economic policy issues of mutual concern. All the papers are available online. This year’s meetings occurred...
I never made promises lightly and there have been some that I've broken But I swear in the days still left we'll walk in fields of gold Sting (2017) In this note, we have taken a look at the gold...
Understanding the difference between risk and uncertainty is crucial in every aspect of investing. A decision involving risk lends itself to statistical analysis and econometrics, particularly if the opportunity or idea is common, and the event re-occurring. On the other...
On 1 July 2020, Indonesia’s central bank closed an agreement with the government to fund $40bln USD at zero% interest rate, to fight the coronavirus pandemic. This is the largest debt monetisation program among emerging market nations so far. While...
Just to see you smile, I’d do anything, that you wanted me to, And all is said and done, I’d never count the cost It’s worth all that’s lost Tim McGraw (1997) Today’s note is several weeks in...
“Want to hear you say come on over, ‘cause when you tell me to come on over, I like the sound of that” Rascal Flatts (2014) It’s become increasingly evident that economic data series are struggling to convey...
Want to hear a bond market joke? Q: What do you call Canada after having its credit rating cut from AAA to AA? A: Canad Thank you, I’ll be here all week. On to the note – last week Tuesday...